"Every surface favors Alcaraz and Sinner, it doesn't matter anymore": Indian Wells ATP Final already prewritten in belief of American ex-player trio

The first ATP Masters 1000 of the season has arrived, and all eyes in the tennis world turn to the California desert. Indian Wells Masters consistently delivers drama, unpredictability, and a unique test of conditions — and this year feels no different.

On the latest episode of the Nothing Major Podcast, former American stars John Isner, Steve Johnson and Sam Querrey looked ahead to what promises to be a fascinating fortnight.

Isner set the stage by highlighting the strength of the field at Indian Wells, led by World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 Jannik Sinner, with Novak Djokovic also in the draw.

For Johnson, however, the conversation begins — and almost ends — with the top two. “I think on the men’s side it’s just, can the domination continue from Alcaraz?” Johnson said. “Will he lose a set? Will he lose a match? Is Sinner kind of back to where he was at the end of last year, competing at the end of these tournaments?”

Johnson didn’t hesitate with his prediction. “I think we’re going to see an Alcaraz-Sinner final. On hard courts, these guys are just very good. Sinner’s been there for a few days already practicing, getting ready. They want to win here. It’s a big, first Masters Series event of the year.”

At the moment, he added, it’s difficult to look elsewhere. “I don’t see anybody outside of those two guys winning it. It’s hard to pick against them at the moment.”

Indian Wells has long been regarded as one of the most distinctive hard-court events on tour. The gritty surface, high bounce, dry desert air, and dramatic day-to-night temperature swings create a tournament unlike any other.

Isner asked Querrey whether the conditions especially favor Alcaraz. “Every surface favors Alcaraz and Sinner,” Querrey replied. “It doesn’t matter anymore.”

Still, he acknowledged that the desert conditions likely tilt slightly toward the Spaniard. “Yes, I think so. It’s gritty, it’s high-bouncing. I think Sinner’s a little better when the ball’s right in his zone. For Alcaraz, he works the kick serve around a little bit more.”

Beyond the court itself, it’s the environmental extremes that often shape matches. “When you play a night match there compared to a day match, it’s one of the biggest contrasts during the year,” Querrey explained. “It’s like 25 degrees colder. That cold, dry desert air — you’ve got to string your racquet at a different tension.”

Johnson agreed that the desert unpredictability adds a strategic layer to the event. “In my mind, it’s a bit like the British Open in golf,” he said. “You can have perfect weather days and be on a good schedule. Then you can have one of those crazy windy days where you just have to gut out an ugly win.”

The wind, in particular, can wreak havoc. “You never know what you’re going to get out in the desert,” Johnson added. “It can look perfect, but as soon as that sun goes down, it gets cold. It slows things down, for sure.”

While rising names such as Jack Draper have made noise early in the season, Johnson isn’t expecting a surprise champion this week.

“I don’t see Draper kind of coming from nowhere to get another title,” he said bluntly.

Instead, the consensus from the Nothing Major trio is clear: unless something dramatic happens, the tournament likely runs through Alcaraz and Sinner.

The first Masters 1000 of the year often sets the tone for the spring hard-court swing. If the predictions hold, Indian Wells could deliver another chapter in what is rapidly becoming the defining rivalry of the current era.

And in the desert — where temperatures drop, winds swirl, and conditions shift by the hour — even the best in the world will need to adapt quickly.

But as Querrey put it simply: surface or not, “it doesn’t matter anymore” when it comes to Alcaraz and Sinner.