"If we pick Sinner and we’re right, nobody’s going to care because he’s the favourite anyway" - Jim Courier and Tracy Austin analyse upcoming Rome Open final

The final of the ATP Rome Open is almost upon us. World number one Jannik Sinner is one match away from completing the collection of Masters 1000 titles on home soil. To do that, he will need to find a way past Casper Ruud who, while very talented on clay, is by far the second favourite in this final. Jim Courier and Tracy Austin delved into how this final will be decided and what is on the line for both players.

Ruud broke his Masters 1000 duct last year at the Madrid Open. He has not really kicked on since, but a quarter-final in the Spanish capital followed by his deep run in Rome signals a route back to his best form.

However, Sinner has looked unstoppable. He is now on 33 consecutive Masters 1000 wins and 28 victories in a row. He adds another one to it then victory in Rome will be his. After losing the final last year to Carlos Alcaraz, he will be desperate to get over the line in this intriguing clash.

While the odds heavily favour Sinner, many predicting who will win could be swayed towards the Norwegian due to Sinner's semi-final where illness, injury and the fact it was played over two gruelling days could handicap him slightly in the final.

"I think the line shifted a little because some gamblers saw that Sinner’s physical state looked slightly compromised yesterday," Courier began. "But I agree with the odds overall."

Austin firmly backed Sinner to lift the title on home soil despite what has gone against him in recent times. "He hasn’t dropped a set all tournament," she said. "Jimmy actually gave Casper advice after their previous match. He said to get the ball higher and heavier, to take it out of Sinner’s strike zone."

Courier backed this up. "Which makes sense. You’ve got to make him uncomfortable. Once you’re in the rally, that’s really what it comes down to.

"Casper’s also got a great serve because of that 'jack-in-the-box' motion. He’s one of the few players on tour who really takes the ball off the rise on serve, which makes it difficult to read. If he has a good serving day, that could really help him. But you also have to remember that Sinner has been serving brilliantly in this tournament too."

The obvious answer to this is the right to call yourself a Masters 1000 champion, the second time for Ruud and 10th for Sinner. However, beneath the surface there is much more on the line as Sinner threatens to re-write the record books again.

"For Sinner, it’s potentially a fifth straight title, a 28-match winning streak, his first Rome title and completing the Golden Masters," Courier stated.

"It is also a big occasion for Ruud. "For Casper, it would be his second Masters 1000 title after winning Madrid last year, and it would move him up to No. 6 in the Race. That’s massive. Overall, Casper’s had a really strong start to the season. He had the setback in Monte Carlo with the calf injury, which affected Barcelona, but he’s bounced back well."

Tactically this will be a very intriguing final. The four-time Grand Slam champion looks imperious on his serve, unearthing a tremendous amount of power while matching it with pinpoint accuracy which makes it hard for his opponents to return.

"How Casper picks up Sinner’s serve is going to be crucial because Sinner’s accuracy has been outstanding this tournament," Courier analysed.

"Last season, when Sinner hit his targets in the 'green zone,' it was around 65% of the time. This tournament, the accuracy has gone up significantly and he hasn’t sacrificed pace to do it. Casper likes to return from very deep behind the baseline, so those wide serves are going to be extremely difficult to handle if Sinner keeps serving like this."

Austin expanded on this. "Exactly. Casper likes to stand so far back because he wants time on the ball. He gets back there, uses that heavy rotation and tries to get the return deep so he can set up the forehand on the next shot. That’s always his game plan. We’ll see how well he can execute it."

Predictions heavily favoured Sinner for a sixth consecutive Masters 1000 crown. Host Steve Weissman opted to go against the grain and picked Ruud to cause a huge upset in the final. "If the Casper pick comes off, you’ll look like a genius," Austin stated. "If we pick Sinner and we’re right, nobody’s going to care because he’s the favourite anyway," Courier concluded.