Preview ATP Rome Open Final | Jannik Sinner one win away from title on home soil against Casper Ruud

Another Masters 1000 final is set to conclude, and following the trend from every final at this level this year, Jannik Sinner is one of the finalists. He will take on Casper Ruud in the final of the Rome Open after a hugely dramatic two weeks of action at Foro Italico.

Both players have experienced different routes to this stage. Sinner continues to show his class with authoritative displays and mesmerising tennis, albeit recent events could favour Ruud in the final. He is getting back to his best, but will still be the heavy underdog against the best player in the world.

No one can stop Sinner at the moment. Not 28 matches unbeaten, 33 wins on the bounce at Masters 1000 level and on the brink of winning the last title at this level up for grabs. If he does, Sinner will join Novak Djokovic as the only player to have won them all. The most recent win also confirmed him in the third Masters 1000 final on clay, making him just the second person behind Rafael Nadal to complete this insane feat.

While he is handicapped that Carlos Alcaraz is not in action, there is no stopping him in this current moment in time. Whatever the surface, condition, or obstacles he has to overcome, the Italian is utterly dominant.

He will be looking to make up for the defeat on home soil last year against Alcaraz. After losing a tiebreak in the first set, the Spaniard battered him in the second set ahead of that jaw-dropping Roland Garros final. Sinner will be eyeing up the second Grand Slam of the year, but first there is a job to be completed in Rome.

He disposed of Sebastion Ofner with ease, needing a single break in each set to confirm a 6-3, 6-4 win. Alexei Popyrin was defeated in a much more ominous manner, winning the final seven games enroute to a 6-2, 6-0 trouncing over the former Canadian Open champion. Fellow Italian Andrea Pellegrino was dealt with 6-2, 6-3 before two-time Masters 1000 champion Andrey Rublev was successfully tacked 6-2, 6-4.

That win over the Russian secured the overall record for consecutive Masters 1000 wins, surpassing Djokovic’s 31. He soon made it 33, but in a stop-start match against Medvedev. The match was stopped by rain after Sinner took a 4-2 lead in the first set. Despite sickness and injury concerns, he came back and served it out the next day for a well-earned 6-2, 5-7, 6-4win. There will be worry over his fitness and recovery before the final, but if he continues to play at the level he has been, Ruud will have his work cut out.

Ruud is looking back to his best. That is a sight many tennis fans will be happy to hear. He may have suffered a sharp plummet in the rankings after his failed title defence at the Madrid Open. However, a quarter-final run at Caja Magica followed by his brilliant showings to confirm him a spot in the final has seen him clamber up eight places to 17th in the ATP live rankings. He wins the title, he will go to 15th with Roland Garros fast approaching.

His form in Rome has signalled a lot of nearly moments. Semi-finals in 2020, 2022 and 2023 were all brilliant results but not what he was after. The Norwegian has aspirations of lifting the title, and a quarter-final exit in 2025 following a maiden Masters 1000 title in Madrid kept that wait prolonging.

This is by far his best chance of doubling his Masters 1000 tally. Clay has always been his favourite surface, and he has been remarkably affective on it over the past few years which aided his rise to world number two back in 2022. Now playing some of his best tennis, more success could be just around the corner.

His pathway to the final has been challenging but dealt with in fine fashion. Zachary Svajda was disposed of with ease 6-1, 6-3. A very tricky third round test against the Miami Open finalist Jiri Lehecka was next. It was a tie neither of them would have wanted, but it was the three-time Grand Slam finalist who walked off the merrier after winning 6-3, 6-4.

An even tougher test on paper awaited him in the last-16. On home soil, Lorenzo Musetti was trying to back up the semi-final run from last year. However, injury problems this year have really dented his progress. Ruud sportingly acknowledged his opponent’s woes afterwards, but was ruthless on court with a 6-3, 6-1 triumph. He dropped his first set of the tournament against a much-improved Karen Khachanov. He recovered well to win 6-1, 1-6, 6-2 to secure a 10th Masters 1000 semi-final, a fourth at Foro Italico. There he met another Italian in the form of Luciano Darderi. The clay specialist was unable to find his best stuff on court and Ruud thrashed him 6-1, 6-1 amid rain delays. That threat, which has plagued the competition on numerous occasions, seems to be replaced by sunshine and 0% chance of precipitation – a welcoming sight for both players.

The head to head is heavily in favour of Sinner. Four matches, four wins, zero sets for Ruud.

They met in Vienna in both 2020 and 2021, with the Norwegian’s tournament ending to the hands of Sinner. Three years later, also in an indoor hardcourt setting, Sinner ended Ruud’s ATP Finals hopes at the semi-final stage on the way to winning it for the first time.

Their most recent meeting came last year at Foro Italico in the quarter-final stage. Both players were at contrasting stages of their season. Ruud had just won Madrid while Sinner was making his return to action after a three-month suspension. On paper this may have favoured Ruud. In reality, Sinner dropped one game.

The four-time Grand Slam champion is regularly putting up incredible displays, making other extremely talented players on the ATP Tour look mortal. That could occur once more for Ruud again if he is not able to keep pace. Regularly in this tournament Sinner has come out of the blocks fast, having gone 4-0 ahead in two of his prior three matches.

It is set to be an absolutely intriguing final. Sinner will be the favourite, but if he falters or the drawn-out semi-final match against Medvedev gets to him, Ruud will be waiting to pounce.