Preview ATP Finals Day Five: Alcaraz fights Musetti for year-end World No. 1 as Fritz looks to secure win-and-in

This Thursday, November 13, the Day Five of the ATP Finals will be played, featuring the definition of the Jimmy Connors Group, where Carlos Alcaraz will look to secure his classification. He needs only one set against Lorenzo Musetti to guarantee his passage to the semi-finals—although only a victory will ensure him the top spot in the group.

On the other hand, Taylor Fritz arrives well-positioned for the last match against Alex de Minaur, and the American needs only a victory to advance to the semi-finals—regardless of what happens between Alcaraz and Musetti. However, a defeat for Fritz will complicate things, and everything could be defined by sets or even games in case of a potential three-way tie between Fritz, De Minaur, and Musetti (each with one victory).

Taylor Fritz arrives at the decisive match in good spirits despite the loss to Carlos Alcaraz on Tuesday. The 2024 ATP Finals runner-up controls his own destiny to advance, benefiting from a straight-sets victory over Musetti and having taken a set from Alcaraz. Fritz holds a correct 6-5 record at the ATP Finals, and in his two previous appearances, he managed to at least advance from the Round Robin stage.

For Fritz, things depend on himself: a win catapults him to the semi-finals, while in case of a three-set loss, he will need Alcaraz to win at least one set. Even a straight-sets defeat may not be too costly, as he holds an advantage over his rivals if Alcaraz defeats Musetti. The World No. 5 is the best-placed player to advance alongside Alcaraz, although everything will depend on the results throughout the day.

Beyond the loss to Alcaraz, Fritz looked to be playing at a high level, with 14 aces and 71% of points won on his first serve. His weakness was a lack of sharpness in important moments, as he only managed to convert one break point out of nine opportunities against Alcaraz, and he will need to be more incisive at critical junctures if he wants to take a step forward. He will face a De Minaur who comes into the match with diminished confidence after consecutive defeats to Alcaraz and Musetti, although a final hope remains for the Australian.

De Minaur needs a straight-sets victory and for Alcaraz to defeat Musetti. In that case, there would be a three-way tie for second place—all with one win and two losses, with Fritz and De Minaur tied in sets (3-4). In that scenario, games won would become the tiebreaker, and De Minaur would need to win by at least a difference of 4 games (a 6-4, 6-4 win would guarantee him passage, while in a tighter scenario—such as 7-6, 7-5—Fritz would advance).

The H2H has been tight so far, with a 5-5 record, although Fritz won five of the last seven encounters, including their 2024 ATP Finals battle, where Fritz's victory was key to advancing to the semi-finals.

Carlos Alcaraz arrives practically qualified for the decisive match—and only a true disaster could eliminate him from contention. Just one set will be enough to secure his place in the semi-finals, while even if defeated, he would still hold a good advantage in games won so far. The Spaniard will aim for the victory anyway to claim the group leadership—and perhaps more importantly—guarantee the Year-End World No. 1 ranking. The Spaniard needs just one more win and he will be mathematically unreachable for Sinner, finishing as No. 1 for the second year in his career (the first was in 2022).

The 6-time major champion had to bring out his best level to overcome a complicated Taylor Fritz in the second match but showed again why he has been the player with the most wins this season, maintaining composure in difficult moments before closing out the victory 6-7, 7-5, 6-3. The World No. 2 looms as an immense favorite in what will also be a match that could be definitive in his quest to reclaim the No. 1 spot.

Lorenzo Musetti, for his part, arrives with renewed hope after the three-set victory over Alex de Minaur. The Italian was the player who arrived with the least time to adapt to the tournament—after playing the Hellenic Championship final just two days before his debut against Fritz—but against De Minaur, he achieved a confidence-boosting victory to keep his hopes alive.

Musetti will need to pay attention to the match that will be played at the start of the day, as if Fritz defeats De Minaur, he will arrive at the decisive match already eliminated. If De Minaur manages to defeat Fritz, the Italian will still have a chance—and it will depend exclusively on securing a victory against Alcaraz to advance.

The H2H is currently 6-1 in favor of Alcaraz, and Musetti's only win was a long time ago, back in 2022. Since then, Alcaraz has won 13 of the subsequent 15 sets they have completed.