COLUMN: A season that won’t quit meets a finale that can’t hide as WTA Finals begins in Riyadh

The WTA Finals begin tomorrow in Riyadh, and as always, they arrive with the promise of elite shot-making, tactical brilliance, and the kind of emotional intensity only the last battle of a long season can deliver. But let’s be honest: this year’s finale feels a little like a beautifully plated dessert being served at midnight after a 12-course meal. You want to savor it—but your body is blinking the universal sign for please, no more.

Still, here we are. Eight of the best players in the world are ready to mercifully end the tennis year on a high note, divided into two groups named after legends who defined eras.

It’s a strong field with contrasting styles, personalities, and trajectories. And as I always do when evaluating round-robin likelihoods, I look at two things: current level and current health. The late-season WTA calendar can feel like survival of the fittest—and sometimes, the healthiest wins more often than the most talented.

Let’s start with the obvious: Aryna Sabalenka enters as the clear favorite to survive this group. This stretch of her career has been Peak Sabalenka—commanding, confident, and mentally fortified in a way that doesn’t invite the meltdowns of years past. Unless her serve suddenly decides to reenact its 2021 disappearing act (and we haven’t seen that in ages), she advances.

Behind her, it gets fascinating.

Coco Gauff remains one of the most compelling players on tour, but the post-US Open stretch has shown cracks. Physically, she hasn’t looked fully fresh; emotionally, there’s been a bit of the burnout vibe. She’s too good to write off completely, but this format punishes anything less than full throttle.

Jessica Pegula is the WTA’s consistency queen—and there is a universe where she quietly wins the group while barely making headlines. That’s her thing. But she, too, has looked a touch worn down recently. Pegula at 90% is still extremely dangerous; Pegula at 75% risks death by relentless baseline trades in a format like this.

So that leaves the player I’m backing to join Sabalenka: Jasmine Paolini. Yes, the breakout narrative has become mainstream. Yes, everyone now knows she’s a threat. But what sets Paolini apart is the way her confidence has evolved from hopeful to earned. Her footwork is razor sharp, she absorbs pace beautifully, and she competes with a fire that never flickers. She feels like the one here with fuel left in the tank.

If Group Graf feels orderly, Group Serena is deliciously unpredictable. It’s the difference between a carefully curated museum and a fireworks warehouse.

Iga Swiatek, as always, is a contender on any court, any week. But the emotional labor of carrying the mantle of world-beater catches up late in the season. When she’s locked in, she crushes. When the tank hits empty, she becomes mortal—still exceptional, but beatable. The question is whether she has one more sprint left.

Elena Rybakina has looked sensational lately—clean hitting, calm temperament, laser-beam focus. She plays tennis like she’s solving a physics equation in real time, and when the variables cooperate, there might be no one smoother or more dangerous. She feels like a threat not just to escape the group but to win the whole event.

Madison Keys is always capable of a burst of brilliance, but consistency and health have been her biggest opponents this fall. One electrifying match? Sure. Three in a compressed format? Harder to see.

And then there’s Amanda Anisimova, who has already given us one of the most emotional return-to-tour arcs of the season. Her ball-striking remains effortless and explosive; when she’s dialed in, she can make even Swiatek uncomfortable. The question isn’t talent—it’s whether her match rhythm and fitness hold under the bright lights of round-robin pressure. My heart and head are tentatively aligned here: she can get out of this group.

(with a nervous asterisk because if anyone pushes Anisimova out, it’s Rybakina and she has been cooking.

It would be disingenuous to preview this event without acknowledging the elephant in the room. The WTA Finals taking place in Saudi Arabia represents the latest chapter in global sportwashing. For a tour built on trailblazing women’s empowerment, staging the finale here feels…discordant. The optics matter, the message matters, and this location raises fair criticism.

On top of that, the calendar strain is real. With players openly posting injury updates and physio tables more frequently than match highlights, it’s clear the schedule is pushing limits. The Tour Finals should be in September, when bodies are fresher and the narrative arc makes sense. This current timing invites as much concern as excitement.

If we’re forced to call it—and that’s the whole point—Sabalenka feels like the safest and smartest pick. She’s healthy, she’s confident, and she’s been built for big-stage, late-season tennis. I don’t root for her, but rooting preferences don’t affect racquet speed. Peak power plus mental stability equals titles.

But tennis loves chaos. And the path to the trophy is lined with landmines: Paolini’s relentlessness, Rybakina’s ice-cold geometry, Anisimova’s revived belief, Swiatek’s baseline dictatorship if she taps into it.

What we get instead of certainty is opportunity—a chance for someone to punctuate a long, bruising season with a moment that shines just a little brighter because of everything that preceded it.

I’ll say it anyway: if you’re giving me one name, it’s Sabalenka. If you’re giving me one storyline to root for, it’s Anisimova going deep. I would also not shed one sad year if Paolini won it all in a massive upset if you love tennis, how can you not love Paolini?

Either way, I’ll be watching, happily tired and slightly conflicted—just like the players themselves.