Preview China Open 2024 Women’s Quarterfinal: Muchova-Sabalenka and Andreeva-Zheng Qinwen in fight for semi-final spots

The quarterfinals of the China Open will be decided on Friday, October 4, with Aryna Sabalenka facing Karolina Muchova and local star Zheng Qinwen taking on Mirra Andreeva.

With a significant number of points up for grabs at the season's end, a victory seems crucial for Sabalenka's pursuit of the World No. 1 ranking, or in the case of Zheng, her attempt to secure a spot in the WTA Finals. The winners on Friday will join Paula Badosa and Coco Gauff, who were the first semifinalists confirmed on Thursday.

Karolina Muchova’s hot streak faces ultimate test against Aryna Sabalenka

Muchova continues her winning path since her comeback, boasting a record of 16-4 (80%) in just five tournaments. The Czech player has once again displayed her talent in recent months after being sidelined for nine months, reaching the semifinals at the US Open and the final at the Palermo Open, while quickly returning to the top 50.

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Her performances last week in Beijing have once again demonstrated that when she’s in form, she’s one of the most dangerous players on the Tour. In her four victories at the China Open, Muchova has dropped just 12 games, averaging (3.0) per match on her way to the quarterfinals, the best performance by any player since La Ni in 2010 with the same record.

The 28-year-old will face Sabalenka for the fourth time, leading the head-to-head 2-1, including wins in the semifinals of the Cincinnati Open and Roland Garros in 2023. The Belarusian, however, arrives full of confidence, enjoying her best-ever streak of 15 consecutive wins between Ostrava 2020 and Abu Dhabi 2021.

The first seed has managed in recent months to narrow the gap between herself and Iga Swiatek in the race for World No. 1, with fewer than 200 points separating them in the WTA Race. A win against Muchova will take her to 8,266 points this season, just behind Swiatek (8,285), and it looks like a tight race until the WTA Finals to see who will finish the year at the top of the rankings.

Karolina Muchova at 2024 US Open.

Youthful duel awaits as Zheng Qinwen battles Mirra Andreeva

The local favorite is competing in the China Open for the first time and has lived up to the public’s expectations. Zheng Qinwen has won 19 of her last 21 matches, securing a title at the Palermo Open, winning a gold medal at the Olympic Games, and reaching the quarterfinals of the US Open. In her latest match, the Chinese player made a great comeback against Amanda Anisimova, overturning a set deficit to win 3-6, 6-1, 6-2.

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At just 21 years old, Zheng rarely faces opponents younger than herself, but this time she’ll go up against Mirra Andreeva, who is more than four years her junior. The Russian teenager dominated Magda Linette (31st seed) in the Round of 16 (6-1, 6-3) and matched Maria Sharapova as the youngest player to reach the China Open quarterfinals, at exactly the same age as her compatriot: 17 years and 156 days.

This will be an exciting match, especially for Zheng, who has been closing in on a WTA Finals spot: “I find it a little bit challenging going into the Finals. Indeed, I need good points from these two tournaments,” she mentioned upon her arrival at the China Open.

Mirra Andreeva at 2024 French Open.

Starting the week in 8th place, over 500 points behind Emma Navarro (7th) and the last to qualify for Riyadh, the early elimination of the American player has revived Zheng's hopes. If she beats Andreeva, she’ll be just over 100 points behind Navarro, while a potential final appearance would put her in a qualifying position with only one tournament left before the Finals.