Preview WTA Madrid Open final | Mirra Andreeva eyes hat-trick of WTA 1000 titles as Marta Kostyuk looks to continue unbeaten streak on clay

This WTA Madrid Open has been dominated by seeds exiting early and lower ranked players making unlikely runs into the latter stages. Just two players remain to fight it out for the title, with two of the most inform players on clay currently transferring their form to the Spanish capital at the right time.

World number eight and two-time WTA 1000 champion Mirra Andreeva would have been tipped by many to go on a deep run, but with the competition around her, the fact she was the second highest player ranked in the quarterfinal stage was a surprise. While other seeds fell, she brilliantly navigated her tasks and emotions at times to reach another huge final.

Her opponent is new to this. Marta Kostyuk is into a third WTA final in 2026, but none even remotely close to this in terms of level and prestige. Yet to taste defeat on clay in 2026, the Ukrainian has dropped just one set enroute to the final. It is set to be a hotly contested final between two fantastic players, but only one can take home silverware.

This week in Madrid has been one of celebration for Andreeva. Her target was to stay in the competition after turning 19, which was confirmed after coming through her quarterfinal clash. Light birthday celebrations were followed by making a third final at this level, the first since Indian Wells of last year where she went back-to-back in Dubai and California.

That form has not been so apparent as of late. A couple of Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances were overshadowed by a shoddy end to 2025 which saw her miss out on debuting in the WTA Finals. A damaging blow to someone who looked an almost certainty to feature in Riyadh. However, 2026 has brought more success, amid some turbulent scenes on court.

Early exits in the Sunshine swing saw her plummet in terms of ranking points, just keeping her top 10 status after that hugely critical period in terms of defending points. She is now looking to gain them back. A late entry in the Upper Austria Ladies Linz was an inspired decision as the Russian took home the title before losing to the world number two Elena Rybakina in the semi-finals of the Stuttgart Open. That form has continued into the Spanish capital. 12 wins from 13 matches on clay this year. A 13th would be the most special.

It has not been overly simple to get to this stage. Seeds have crashed out all around her in a destructive tournament. An opportunity was there, and Andreeva has seized it. She started off by defeating a trio of Hungarians in the form of Panna Udvardy (7-5, 6-2), Dalma Galfi (6-3, 6-2) and Anna Bondar (6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5). The latter was a hectic match. Leading 5-1 in the third, she lost five consecutive games to fall 6-5 behind, in disbelief in what was happening as the raw emotions came pouring out. She managed to keep her cool and make it into the quarterfinals where former US Open finalist Leylah Fernandez was dealt with (7-6(1), 6-3).

It seemed likely that world number one Aryna Sabalenka would be her next test. However, a certain Hailey Baptiste saved six match points on the way to dumping out the defending champion. The American could not put in the same performance against a much more composed Andreeva on court, with her advancing into a seventh WTA final (6-4, 7-6(8)).

Realistically, Andreeva would have been placed as one of the people to watch going deeper into the tournament. Kostyuk making it this far does keep with the trend of her recent form, but at the same time is a huge surprise.

The Ukrainian cannot be stopped at this moment in time. A four-time WTA 1000 quarterfinalist, she was only able to convert one of these into a semi-final. She made a run to the last-eight of the tournament last year before coming unstuck against Sabalenka in a brace of tiebreaks. Set points in the second set were abundant, but none were taken in a frustrating end to her campaign in 2025.

She started 2026 pretty well after a slow end to the year, just winning two matches after the last-16 run at the US Open. She reached the final of the Brisbane International, taking down the likes of Jessica Pegula and Amanda Anisimova, before once more feeling the wrath of the world number one. A first round exit at the Australian Open signalled a period on the sidelines. Rybakina ended her Sunshine double in the third round of both tournaments before the clay swing commenced. This is where she turned up the heat.

Opting against competing with a stacked field in Stuttgart, she was the number one seed for the 250 event in Rouen. Dropping just two sets enroute to the final, she defeated fellow countrywoman Veronika Podrez for her second WTA title, and first since 2023. Up next was Madrid, and the momentum kept skyrocketing.

The 23-year-old wasted no time in dumping out Yulia Putintseva (6-1, 6-3) before putting in a meteoric performance to prevent Jessica Pegula from reaching the quarterfinal of a tournament for the first time since the 2025 Cincinnati Open (6-1, 6-4). Caty McNally (6-2, 6-3) and world number 13 Linda Noskova (7-6(1), 6-0) were brushed aside before lucky loser Anastasia Potapova stood in her way of a maiden WTA 1000 final. She dominated the first set before her form fell off a cliff in the second. Fortunately, she was able to capture the high-end tennis she has been accustomed to in recent times, blitzing the third set to win 6-2, 1-6, 6-1 and cement her spot in the final. There was no handshake between Kostyuk and Potapova amid her prior links to Russia. This trend is expected to continue in the final.

There has only been one meeting between the pair, and it has gone the way of Kostyuk. That forementioned Brisbane run also included a brilliant straight sets win over Andreeva. This makes for a wide open final, the first time they have faced off on clay.

Andreeva has never lost a WTA 1000 final, while Kostyuk is yet to lose on clay this year. She could become just the second player after Arevane Rezai (No. 24 in 2010) to win the Madrid Open whilst being ranked outside the top 10.

Kostyuk is a big hitter controlling her aggression on court while Andreeva may pose more variety in her tennis. It is fair to say that Kostyuk has edged it in terms of tennis this week at Caja Magica, but Andreeva has not needed to release her highest level. That could be needed in Saturday's final, or she could be extremely vulnerable from her inform opponent.