"She’s a big-time player in big-time moments": Elena Rybakina viewed as 'serious favourite' for Indian Wells final in view of Eubanks and Vandeweghe

The blockbuster rivalry between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will add another chapter in the final of Indian Wells Open, and former world No. 9 Coco Vandeweghe believes Rybakina’s ability to peak late in tournaments is a major reason she has been so dangerous in recent months.

Speaking on Tennis Channel alongside Chris Eubanks, Vandeweghe pointed to the Kazakh star’s consistency in reaching the closing stages of events.

“One thing it says is that the top 10 players are making it deep in draws,” Vandeweghe explained. “You’re not meeting each other in the first or second round, so these are quarter-final matchups and semi-final matchups.”

She added that Rybakina’s level often rises when the stakes are highest. “It just shows that when she gets deep in a draw, Elena Rybakina is dominant. We’ve seen a couple of other stats where she’s 5–0 in finals, so you see her game come into full form and her ability to take her game to the best in the world.”

According to Vandeweghe, Rybakina’s aggressive style allows her to challenge the very best players on equal footing. “That’s not easy to do when you’re facing world No. 1s and top-10 players — to be able to use your game and actually beat them at first-strike tennis. Rybakina has shown that she’s done it more times than not.”

Eubanks echoed that view, saying Rybakina’s style makes her particularly dangerous if she reaches the latter stages of a tournament. “She’s a big-time player in big-time moments,” he said. “With that game style, there have been a few players throughout history that you’re always kind of wary of if they make the latter rounds of tournaments. I think Rybakina is certainly one of them.”

“If she’s able to get to the final, clearly that serve is firing and her ground game is firing. We’ve even seen in recent months that her movement has gotten a lot better.”

The American added that when the 2022 Wimbledon champion finds rhythm, she becomes extremely difficult to beat. “If she’s able to play her way into form and reach a final, you know you’re in for an in-form Elena Rybakina, and she can be very difficult to topple.”

The Indian Wells final will mark the 16th meeting between Sabalenka and Rybakina, in what has quickly become one of the most compelling rivalries on the WTA Tour.

Although Sabalenka leads their overall head-to-head, Rybakina has enjoyed greater success when titles are on the line, winning four of their five previous finals — including victories at the Australian Open final and the WTA Finals championship match.

Vandeweghe believes their similar playing styles help explain why the match-up can swing Rybakina’s way. “The reason why is that their games are very similar in the regard that their backhands are the more solid wing, while the forehands can break down,” she said.

“When you see it from Aryna Sabalenka, even if she’s having a good serving day, Rybakina is not letting her into these rallies because she can handle the backhand-to-backhand cross-court exchanges. That just makes Sabalenka pull the trigger down the line a little quicker than she wants.”

Despite Rybakina’s recent success in their biggest meetings, betting odds have slightly favoured Sabalenka — something Eubanks suggested may simply reflect the Belarusian’s ranking. “Maybe because Aryna Sabalenka is the world No. 1, and that might be all they’re going off,” he said.

“I’m not a betting person, but if you look at Elena Rybakina, those odds sure look good. I think there are people inside the tennis world who would view Rybakina as a serious favourite to beat Sabalenka.”