WTA Indian Wells 2026 Round-Up | Aryna Sabalenka saves match point to defeat Elena Rybakina in epic finish

Monday, 16 March 2026 at 09:06

aryna-sabalenka-bnp-paribas-open-indian-wells-2026

Aryna Sabalenka captured the 2026 BNP Paribas Open title after a dramatic three-set victory over Elena Rybakina, prevailing 3–6, 6–3, 7–6(6) in a tense final at Indian Wells. The World No. 1 recovered from a set down and saved a match point in the deciding tie-break before completing the comeback to secure her first title in Tennis Paradise.

The victory represents another milestone for Sabalenka, who had previously finished runner-up in the California desert. The Belarusian continues her strong form near the top of the rankings, while Rybakina once again confirmed her status as one of the most dangerous players on hard courts despite falling just short in the final.

First set – Rybakina capitalises on narrow opening

The opening stages of the final were tightly contested, with both players relying heavily on their serves. Sabalenka and Rybakina held comfortably through the early games, with neither managing to create significant pressure on return.

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The key moment arrived in the sixth game. Sabalenka showed a brief dip in consistency, and Rybakina immediately took advantage, securing the first break of the match. That single break proved decisive, as the Kazakh maintained control behind her serve for the remainder of the set.

Serving statistics highlighted Rybakina’s efficiency in the opener. She won 80% of points behind her first serve compared with 64% for Sabalenka, allowing her to manage the closing games without facing serious danger. Rybakina sealed the set 6–3 after 31 minutes, taking the early advantage and putting immediate pressure on the World No. 1.

Second set – Sabalenka raises intensity to force decider

Rybakina continued her momentum early in the second set by breaking Sabalenka’s serve, briefly placing herself in position to take control of the final. However, Sabalenka responded quickly. The Belarusian improved her returning and began dictating rallies more consistently from the baseline. A rapid break back restored parity before Sabalenka gained further momentum with another break of serve.

The World No. 1 also navigated several tense moments on serve. She saved two break points in a crucial service game before extending her lead, showing the composure that had been missing earlier in the match.

Rybakina attempted to stay within reach by holding serve late in the set, but Sabalenka maintained control and eventually closed the set 6–3, sending the match into a deciding third set.

Deciding set – Sabalenka survives match point in dramatic finish

The final set delivered the most dramatic moments of the match. Sabalenka appeared to take control after producing a remarkable comeback from 40–0 down on Rybakina’s serve to secure an early break.

After consolidating the break, Sabalenka moved ahead 4–1 and looked increasingly close to the title. Yet Rybakina remained composed under pressure. The Kazakh held serve to stay in the match and later broke Sabalenka when the Belarusian served for the championship at 5–4.

Momentum continued to shift as both players fought through high-pressure service games. Rybakina saved five break points in one crucial hold to guarantee at least a tie-break, forcing Sabalenka to serve again to keep the match alive.

The final tie-break reflected the balance of the contest. Both players exchanged mini-breaks before Rybakina earned the first match point with a backhand down the line. Sabalenka responded immediately with a cross-court backhand winner to erase the opportunity. From that moment, the Belarusian regained control. Sabalenka won three consecutive points to close the tie-break 8–6 and complete the comeback victory - 3-6, 6-3, 7-6 [8-6].

Statistically, the final remained extremely close. Sabalenka finished with 10 aces to Rybakina’s 12, while both players held 80% of their service games. Sabalenka also saved six of nine break points faced during the match.

Match Statistics Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina

Aryna Sabalenka	VS	Elena Rybakina
	Service
10	Aces	12
3	Double Faults	2
55% (59/107)	1st Service Percentage	58% (55/95)
66% (39/59)	1st Service Points Won	65% (36/55)
56% (27/48)	2nd Service Points Won	70% (28/40)
67% (6/9)	Break Points Saved	63% (5/8)
80% (12/15)	Service Games	80% (12/15)
	Return
35% (19/55)	1st Return Points Won	34% (20/59)
30% (12/40)	2nd Return Points Won	44% (21/48)

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Samuel GillEditor-in-Chief

Samuel Gill is the Chief Content Officer (CCO) of TennisUpToDate.com, a role he has held since 2020. He is responsible for editorial governance across the platform, including setting content standards, overseeing accuracy and consistency, and guiding long-term editorial strategy. Since joining, he has contributed more than 10,000 articles and editorial pieces across the TennisUpToDate network, playing a central role in the daily operation and development of the site.

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