Preview ATP Adelaide International Semifinals: Tommy Paul and Davidovich Fokina chase their first final of the season

The ATP 250 Adelaide International reaches its decisive stage this Friday, January 16, with the semifinals set to determine the two players who will battle for the title on Saturday. The main favourites — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (No. 14) and Tommy Paul (No. 20) — remain in contention, although both face demanding challenges on their path to the final.

The Spaniard — who has lost all five ATP finals he has played so far — will be aiming for another chance to finally reach a title match. This time, his semifinal test comes against Ugo Humbert (No. 35), who has yet to drop a set and has conceded only a handful of games across his last two matches.

Meanwhile, American Tommy Paul, competing in his first tournament after several months away from the Tour, has not faced major difficulties in reaching the semifinals, securing straight-sets victories over Reilly Opelka and Aleksandar Vukic. He will take on the always-resolute Tomas Machac (No. 33), another player in strong form who has also advanced without dropping a set and who currently leads the head-to-head against the American.

Tommy Paul is looking to quickly regain confidence and momentum before heading to the Australian Open, where he faces significant ranking points to defend. The former world No. 8 dropped several positions after missing the final stretch of the 2025 season, having last competed at the US Open before taking time off to recover from a foot injury.

While the layoff came at a ranking cost, Paul has shown no signs of a drop in level at the start of the season. He appears ready to climb back up the rankings and re-establish himself as a force on the Tour. His wins over Opelka and Vukic came without losing serve — in fact, only Vukic managed to earn a single break point, which he failed to convert. Paul is chasing the eighth final of his career, and his first since October 2024.

On Machac’s side, despite having less experience than Paul, the Czech has managed to establish himself among the upper tier of the rankings over the past two seasons. While his results have been somewhat inconsistent, Machac appears to be searching for the stability needed to collect more wins, finals and titles. He will be aiming for the third final of his career — and intriguingly, a potential rematch of the 2025 Mexican Open final could be on the cards, where Machac claimed his maiden ATP title by defeating Davidovich Fokina, who is competing in the other semifinal.

The head-to-head stands at 2–1 in favour of Machac, who has won both of their hard-court encounters, while Paul claimed victory on clay. Machac prevailed in three-set battles at the Tokyo Open and Shanghai Masters 2024, while their most recent meeting in Rome 2025 went the American’s way.

This semifinal shapes up as a form of revenge match between the Spaniard and the Frenchman, who faced each other not long ago at the Swiss Indoors Basel semifinals in late October. In that encounter, with Davidovich Fokina in control, Humbert suffered an injury and was forced to retire mid-match, sending the Spaniard through to the final with the score at 7-6(4), 3-1, ret. It was also Humbert’s final tournament of the season, as he withdrew the following week from the Paris Masters — one of his favourite events as a home player and where he is a former runner-up.

Davidovich Fokina may be the player most in need of a title among those ranked near the top. He has contested five ATP finals in his career — four of them in 2025 — yet is still searching for his maiden ATP trophy. He has already let key opportunities slip this season, squandering match points against Miomir Kecmanovic in Delray Beach and against Alex de Minaur at the DC Open. The Spaniard knows he is close, and as the top seed in Adelaide at the start of the season, this tournament could represent an ideal chance to reach another title match.

Humbert, meanwhile, was one of the standout performers on the Tour in 2024, reaching four finals and lifting two titles, along with scoring wins over several top players. However, his momentum stalled in 2025, leading to a drop in the rankings. His run to the final at the Stockholm Open in October helped restore some confidence, but his season ended on a sour note following the injury sustained against Davidovich Fokina in Basel.

The head-to-head is currently led 3–1 by Davidovich Fokina, although two of those victories came via Humbert retirements (Montpellier 2023, Basel 2025). In completed matches, the Spaniard won in Estoril 2021 on clay, while Humbert claimed victory in Marseille 2024 on indoor hard courts.