Preview Australian Open Day Twelve | Sabalenka and Svitolina renew rivalry as Rybakina’s momentum meets Pegula’s consistency

This Thursday, January 29, the women’s semifinals of the Australian Open are set to be played, with the two-time Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka continuing her run as the main favorite for the title, as she faces the Ukrainian Elina Svitolina, who comes off a surprise victory over Coco Gauff in the quarterfinals.

While Sabalenka and Svitolina will determine the first finalist of the Australian Open, the second semifinal will follow, with the 2023 runner-up Elena Rybakina taking the court in search of her third Grand Slam final, against the last American still in contention: world No. 6 Jessica Pegula.

Interestingly, all four players arrive at the semifinals without having dropped a set on their way to this stage. In the quarterfinals, names such as Coco Gauff, Amanda Anisimova, and Iga Swiatek were eliminated, reshaping the draw and the list of favorites to reach the final.

The world No. 1 continues to look untouchable in Melbourne, after conceding just three games in her victory over 29th seed Iva Jovic, winning 6-3, 6-0. The four-time Grand Slam champion left behind some third-round difficulties against Potapova, and in the following rounds has looked dominant against young stars Mboko and Jovic.

Sabalenka continues to showcase her efficiency in Grand Slam tournaments. She has reached at least the semifinals on 14 occasions at major tournaments, and has made the final four in 12 of her last 13 Grand Slam appearances since the 2022 US Open. In Melbourne, she has reached three consecutive finals, winning the titles in 2023 and 2024, and only being defeated in the 2025 final, adding up to 25 wins in her last 26 matches at the Australian Open.

The Belarusian will face a familiar rival in Elina Svitolina, against whom she has played six previous matches, leading the head-to-head 5-1. The Ukrainian has reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam for the fourth time in her career, although she has yet to cross that barrier to contest her first major final. The former world No. 3 has found a very high level in recent weeks, recording two consecutive top-10 victories after defeating Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff, both in straight sets.

This will be a clash marked by previous tensions between both players, with a memorable episode at Roland Garros 2024, when in the quarterfinals Sabalenka defeated Svitolina in straight sets. Framed by the context of the war, there was no handshake at the net — despite Sabalenka approaching the net to wait for Svitolina — and after the Ukrainian skipped the handshake, she left the court amid boos from the crowd.

“I don’t know what she was waiting for, because my statements were clear enough about the handshake,” the Ukrainian said. On the booing, she added: “It was quite expected. Whoever in this situation loses, I guess gets booed. It was not a surprise for me.”

“I said it many times, and you know where I stand. You have my position. You have my answer. I answered it many times. I’m not supporting the war,” Sabalenka commented after the match. “And the thing is that I don’t want sport to be involved in politics, because I’m just a tennis player, a 25-year-old tennis player. And if I wanted to be political, I wouldn’t be here. I don’t want to be involved in any politics. I just want to be a tennis player.”

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 5-1, having won their last four meetings. The only time Svitolina defeated Sabalenka was back in 2020 at the Strasbourg Open, in a three-set battle. This time, the Ukrainian will look for personal revenge against Sabalenka and finally take down the world No. 1.

Svitolina’s confidence is also high, especially after securing her return to the top-10 for the first time since 2022, following her victory over Gauff. It could be a major opportunity for Svitolina to contest her first Grand Slam final at the age of 31, after falling three times in major semifinals — most recently at Wimbledon 2023 — and after reaching at least the quarterfinals of a major on 14 occasions.

Two names that from the beginning appeared as candidates for a deep run, and who have delivered on their responsibility on their respective sides of the draw, leaving several notable performances. American Jessica Pegula will seek her second Grand Slam final, after falling in the 2024 US Open final, and arrives with consecutive victories over defending champion Madison Keys and two-time Grand Slam runner-up Amanda Anisimova, both in straight sets.

Pegula’s name has been a regular presence deep in Grand Slam tournaments for several seasons now, but she has yet to fully convince when it comes to capturing her first major title. This time, she appears with the chance to once again contest a major final, although she will face one of the most inspired players of recent months.

Rybakina’s current form is impeccable, and her quarterfinal victory over Iga Swiatek is yet another demonstration of her ability to defeat top players. She now owns nine consecutive wins against top-10 opponents, and 18 victories in her last 19 matches so far, a stretch that includes titles in Ningbo and at the WTA Finals last year.

The Kazakh reaches the semifinals of a Grand Slam for the fourth time in her career, having reached the final of the 2023 Australian Open and winning the title at Wimbledon 2022. Since then, the lack of additional Grand Slam titles for Rybakina has been surprising, given that she is a contender at every major, but has often been eliminated early. This time, already carrying a deep run and strong confidence, the world No. 5 has the opportunity to reach another final.

So far, Pegula and Rybakina have faced each other six times, with the head-to-head tied 3-3. Their most recent meeting came in the semifinals of last year’s WTA Finals, two months ago, where Rybakina came back from a set down to claim the victory on her way to the title in Riyadh.

Both players will also compete with the possibility of a significant ranking jump for the winner. If Rybakina reaches the final, she will rise to world No. 3, moving further ahead of Americans Amanda Anisimova and Coco Gauff. If Pegula claims the victory, she will climb to No. 4, sitting just behind Sabalenka, Swiatek, and Anisimova.