Preview Brisbane International Semifinals: Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula in search of their first final of the season

The first tournament of the season is entering its decisive stage with the semi-final matchups at the WTA 500 Brisbane International, set to be played this Saturday, 10 January. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka headlines the line-up, but she faces a major challenge from Czech sensation Karolina Muchova, who is coming off a surprise win over Elena Rybakina, ending the Kazakh’s 13-match winning streak.

The second semi-final is equally compelling, featuring the ever-consistent Jessica Pegula, once again looking to start her season by reaching a final, against an inspired Marta Kostyuk, who arrives after back-to-back wins over top-10 opponents and is chasing her first final in nearly two years.

The day will open with World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka facing 11th seed Karolina Muchova, who has enjoyed an outstanding week in Brisbane. So far, the Belarusian has encountered few difficulties on her path through the draw, posting three consecutive straight-sets wins and conceding no more than three games per set in any match.

Her most recent victory came against 2025 Australian Open champion Madison Keys, a commanding 6–3, 6–3 performance in which Sabalenka controlled the match from start to finish, earning her 56th career win over a top-10 player.

Standing across the net will be one of the Tour’s most dangerous talents when healthy: Karolina Muchova (World No. 19). The 28-year-old Czech has already collected two top-10 victories this week, defeating Ekaterina Alexandrova and Elena Rybakina, the latter entering the match on a 13-match winning streak. Muchova’s consistency on serve has been a key factor in her success and will once again be crucial in this encounter.

The head-to-head favours Muchova 3–1, including wins in their last three meetings. Sabalenka’s only victory over the Czech dates back to the 2019 Zhuhai Open, seven seasons ago. All of their matches have been tight, featuring tie-breaks in every encounter, with seven of the 11 sets played finishing 7–6 or 7–5.

Sabalenka boasts an excellent record in semi-finals: in 2025, she reached the last four 11 times, failing to advance to the final on only three occasions. Muchova, meanwhile, lost both semi-finals she contested in 2025 and will be aiming to reach her first WTA final since the 2024 China Open, where she notably defeated Sabalenka along the way.

It comes as no surprise to see World No. 6 Jessica Pegula back in the semi-finals, a stage where she regularly capitalises on her favourite status against lower-ranked opponents. This week, the American has defeated Anna Kalinskaya, Dayana Yastremska and Liudmila Samsonova, once again showing why she rarely needs much time to find her rhythm after the off-season.

Her opponent will be Marta Kostyuk, who is looking to correct the inconsistencies of her 2025 campaign, a season marked by strong early-round wins but difficulty in taking the next step toward finals and titles. Brisbane offers a fresh opportunity in a tournament where she was not among the favourites but has produced several standout performances.

The Ukrainian has eliminated Yulia Putintseva, second seed Amanda Anisimova and sixth seed Mirra Andreeva, collecting 11 top-10 victories in the process and already surpassing her 2025 total, when she managed just one such win all year.

Pegula leads the head-to-head 4–1, including their most recent meeting at the China Open in September, a tightly contested three-set match. However, Kostyuk holds a notable advantage in their only meeting at the business end of a tournament, having defeated Pegula in the 2024 San Diego Open semi-finals in straight sets.

This match likely carries greater weight for Kostyuk, who is seeking a return to a WTA final and a confidence-boosting win early in the season. At 23 years old, she also has the chance to break back into the top 10 with a victory.