"She’s the heavy favourite": Martina Navratilova breaks down Sabalenka’s edge at the WTA Finals and analyzes the other top contenders

The 8 female players who will be part of the WTA Finals have been defined, and the 18-time Grand Slam finalist Martina Navratilova analyzed the possibilities of the major stars who will attend Riyadh. Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek will lead the field—both making their 5th consecutive appearance in the year-end tournament and, for the third consecutive time, being the two title favorites. The World No. 1 ranking is secured for Sabalenka regardless of the result, and Martina Navratilova sees her as the overwhelming favorite.

While Sabalenka and Swiatek had their names secured in Riyadh months ago, two names had to compete until the last moment to secure their spot in the WTA Finals: Jasmine Paolini secured her spot a week ago, while Elena Rybakina was the last to enter the top 8, amid a great campaign at the Toray Pan Pacific Open (Tokyo).

The World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will arrive as the main favorite after a phenomenal year—with a record of 59-11 so far and 4 titles—including the US Open, her 4th career Grand Slam title. “She was only three or four matches from winning the Grand Slam. Her consistency is not to be underestimated,” commented Navratilova in WTA website about Sabalenka. “There are so many players you can lose to these days, you have to be on your game at all times, and she was.”

“She peaked well for all the majors. She’s still rueing the French Open more than anything. She could have won that match against Coco Gauff. But she bounced back and reached the semifinals at Wimbledon, where she was beaten by Amanda Anisimova rather than beating herself. Then she won the US Open pretty decisively.”

The Belarusian seeks to improve on her best result back in 2022 when she finished as runner-up. After that, she was eliminated in the semi-finals in 2023 and 2024—both times against the eventual champion. “She’s the heavy favorite on any surface, but particularly on a medium-pace hard court where you get a solid bounce and good footing. Her shots pay off on any surface and she has enough time to get into position. It’s fast enough for her to do damage and slow enough for her to prepare for her shots. She’s deadly on this stuff.”

In the first half of the year, Iga Swiatek failed several times to make deep runs in the most important tournaments, falling repeatedly in the semi-finals. However, she managed to find good results again after the clay-court swing, winning three titles—including her first Wimbledon—and arrives as the closest pursuer to Sabalenka—despite having no chance of recovering the World No. 1 spot this season.

“I feel like she’s a bit of an enigma this year based on the standards she set in recent seasons. She didn’t win the one everyone thought she would at Roland Garros, then she turned around and won the one no one expected her to win. Maybe the pressure was off and she said, ‘I’m just going to go for it.’”

Swiatek has a season record of 61-15, where she won three titles and nearly $10 million in earnings. Following the title at the Korea Open at the end of September, she suffered early defeats at the China Open (Round of 16) and Wuhan Open (quarter-finals). “She’s been a bit up and down, but she won Wimbledon in an amazing way,” commented Navratilova. “She flattened out her shots and didn’t worry about missing here and there. That’s the kind of aggressive approach she needs to bring to Riyadh. That should give her some confidence.”

Until a few weeks ago, Rybakina seemed a long distance from qualifying for the Finals, but she managed to return with great results and consistency, climbing to No. 6 after a series of victories that earned her the title at the Ningbo Open and reached the semi-finals in Tokyo this week. “When she won Wimbledon in 2022, the future looked bright. Her game is beautiful. She has such easy power and she moves well. The serve is a killer. She has all the shots and she’s proven she can win on any surface.”

Her campaign in Tokyo until the semi-finals allowed her to surpass Mirra Andreeva and narrowly edge out the Russian teenager at the last moment. With two titles and her position secured in the WTA Finals, Rybakina chose to withdraw from Tokyo before the semi-finals and focus her energies on the participation in Riyadh. “If I were her, I’d work on the slice more, just to change things up. Mix in more drop shots off both wings so she can knife the ball and keep opponents guessing,” the former No. 1 Navratilova added. “It’s hard to tell sometimes what she’s thinking on court -- she has a serious game face -- but with the way she’s been playing in Asia, you can’t count her out. She’s playing as well as she has all season.”

Jasmine Paolini qualified in the 8th spot, following her campaigns to the quarter-finals of the China Open, and the semi-finals in Wuhan Open and Ningbo. The Italian secured her second career WTA 1000 title on the clay-court swing at the Rome Open—defeating Gauff—in addition to reaching the final in Cincinnati and the semi-finals in five other tournaments. “She has a really fun game to watch. She’s a torpedo out there, and she defends well, attacks well, and she understands spins, positioning and angles. She’s like a mini Ashleigh Barty with a smaller serve.”

Despite not matching her 2024 campaigns—with two Grand Slam finals—her good consistency throughout the year ultimately bore fruit for her second consecutive qualification to the WTA Finals, where she will also play doubles with Sara Errani. “She qualified in both singles and doubles, and that can be rough with round-robin play. You’re playing a match every day, and it’s killer if you make both semifinals. That could be 10 matches in eight days if you go all the way. That’s a big ask. But she’s built for this.”