Who Elena Rybakina must defeat in Pan Pacific Open if to qualify for WTA Finals ahead of Mirra Andreeva

There is just one qualification place left in the enthralling race to Riyadh, with it going down to the wire between Elena Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva.

As things currently stand, the 18-year-old sensation will be competing in her maiden WTA Finals event. Early in the year she put herself in a very commanding position by triumphing in the WTA 1000 events in Dubai and Indian Wells. A brace of last-eight appearances in Madrid and Rome was closely followed by Grand Slam quarter-finals at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. However, from this point her form started to turn for the worse which has put her in this position where she may not even qualify for the event.

Early exits in Beijing, Wuhan and Ningbo have opened the door for the likes of Rybakina to swoop in and capitalise. A quarter-final in Wuhan was escorted by her second title of the year in the Ningbo Open, defeating world number 10 Ekaterina Alexandrova in straight sets. These ranking points have put her within touching distance of Andreeva, but the work is not done yet with one more event in place to decide whether it will be Rybakina or Andreeva competing in Riyadh.

The current standings make for very tight readings. Andreeva sits in eighth with 4,319 accumulated in the 2025 season. This tally will not be changing with her opting against playing in the Pan Pacific Open or Jiangxi Open this week. This is music to the ears of Rybakina, who sits only 14 points behind Andreeva with 4,305 points.

The Kazakhstani has made the trip to Tokyo, looking for back-to-back titles. With Jasmine Paolini having withdrawn from the event with her qualification sewn up, the former Wimbledon champion goes into the event as the number one seed in an event she must go deep in. For her to qualify for the WTA Finals for the third consecutive year, she must reach the semi-final, achieving her 200 ranking points that will be factored in on the race to Riyadh rankings. Anything less than the two wins she craves then Andreeva will qualify. Despite this, the path will not be easy, with a challenging draw set out for her to traverse.

After receiving a bye into the second-round, Rybakina is set to come up against an inform Laylah Fernandez, who herself is coming off the back of a title. As Rybakina was tasting success in Ningbo, the Canadian was playing her trade in the Japan Open, coming out on top in Osaka after defeating 18-year-old qualifier Tereza Valentova in a tense final.

Fernandez will be relishing another tie against the former world number three, with the previous two meetings the pair going in the way of the 2021 US Open finalist. The most recent clash came in the semi-finals of the Washington Open. Fernandez, who had already knocked the number one seed Jessica Pegula, got the better of Rybakina in a tie boasting three tiebreaks and two breaks of serve. The 23-year-old would go on to clinch her first title since 2023.

If Rybakina does manage to get through that tricky tie, she will be once again faced with another tough test in either Victoria Mboko or Eva Lys. If she is able to get past either of these opponents, then she would have booked herself the final ticket for Riyadh.

After causing a seismic shock in the tennis world by winning the Canadian Open, Mboko has quietly departed from the spotlight, only recently picking up her first win since that magical final in Montreal. Funnily enough, Rybakina was one of the players Mboko knocked out on her way to that prestigious title. After beating fellow Canadian Bianca Andreescu in the first round, Mboko is back on track, but also is Lys who has enjoyed a brilliant Asian swing. Similar to Mboko and Fernandez, Lys has also recently enjoyed victory over Rybakina, defeating her on the way to a China Open quarter-final. This is her first event since that competition, with her already coming through qualifying and a first-round win over Katie Boulter.

Whoever Rybakina faces, it will be someone she has recently left the court as a loser against. Despite this, the added motivation of the final place in the WTA Finals is bound to give her the added boost to go on another deep run.