Preview ATP Finals Semi-finals: Carlos Alcaraz faces resurgent Auger-Aliassime as Jannik Sinner aims to extend dominance over De Minaur

The ATP Finals have determined the four semi-finalists for this edition, with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz on opposite sides of the draw, looking to demonstrate their favoritism and guarantee a dream final to cap off a splendid 2025 season for both. Their opponents are two players who secured their semi-final qualification at the last minute, despite having started their journey with losses.

Alcaraz will face Felix Auger-Aliassime, who defeated Alexander Zverev in a winner-takes-all match, and continues to crown a great end to the season with his first semi-final appearance. Even more surprising will be Jannik Sinner's rival: Alex de Minaur, who only needed one win in the last match against Fritz to advance to the semis due to a favorable difference in games.

This is a somewhat unexpected matchup, especially considering that De Minaur entered the third day of his group still without a win at the ATP Finals. However, he salvaged a straight-sets victory against Fritz and ended up advancing by game difference, thanks to the superiority of Alcaraz who claimed three wins in the group stage. The Australian has the numbers against him: a 1-5 record at the ATP Finals and a negative 0-12 H2H against Sinner.

Despite the Australian's great consistency, his problem has always been when facing Top 10 players. Until achieving the win against Fritz on Thursday, De Minaur carried 16 consecutive defeats against Top 10 members—several of them against the Italian Sinner, who has repeatedly defeated him since their first clash back in the Next Gen ATP Finals 2019—including three of them this year.

For Sinner, this will be a match where the pressure of the No. 1 ranking is no longer present—a goal already discarded after the Round Robin—so the only objective in sight is to return to the tournament final for the third consecutive year. Back in 2023, he finished as runner-up to Djokovic, while in 2024 he claimed the title without conceding a set. This time, he once again carries consecutive straight-sets wins—against Auger-Aliassime, Zverev, and Shelton—always looking superior to his rivals.

The 4-time major champion looms as an immense favorite, especially due to the wide advantage in the H2H and the fact that De Minaur has only taken two sets from him in his career out of a total of 29 played. Sinner brings a 29-match win streak on indoor hardcourts, and the home advantage continues to be a factor to consider in this kind of setting.

Carlos Alcaraz will take the court having already accomplished half of his mission in Turin: finishing the season as World No. 1. Pressure was not a problem for the Spaniard, who claimed three consecutive wins against De Minaur, Fritz, and Musetti—only conceding one set along the way—and reached 11,650 points in the live ranking, an unreachable amount for Sinner (who would reach a maximum of 11,500 if he became champion).

The Spaniard now has one final task to finish the season: chasing his first ATP Finals title and 9th title of the season. He has already equaled his best participation in the ATP Finals back in 2023, where he reached the semi-finals—though only with two wins that time. Alcaraz continues to extend his impressive record in 2025 with 70 wins and only 8 losses—in addition to 8 titles, including two Grand Slams. The season has been close to perfection, and he is seen as the clear favorite as he takes the court this Saturday against Auger-Aliassime.

The Canadian became one of the most consistent players in the final stretch of the season since returning to hardcourts. He reached the semi-finals at the US Open, was a finalist at the Paris Masters, and champion in Brussels. Felix's performance in recent months has been a chain of wins and consistency, which deservedly earned him his last-minute spot in Turin, and with his two wins in the Round Robin, he is installed as World No. 5 in the live ranking.

Felix managed to recover from the early defeat against Sinner and saved himself from the abyss against Ben Shelton—where he was a few points away from losing the match, but managed a comeback to stay alive. In the decisive duel against Zverev, he showed greater class in the important moments and that he can handle pressure very well. The 25-year-old star is an indoor hardcourt specialist, a surface where he has won seven of his 8 professional titles. This will be his first time in the ATP Finals semi-finals—after being eliminated in the Round Robin back in 2022.

The H2H is favorable to Carlos Alcaraz at 4-3, and he has taken the last three consecutive duels. However, it has been a long time since they last faced each other on court, their last meeting being in the semi-finals of the Paris Olympics—where Carlitos secured the final spot. They have two indoor hardcourt clashes, both in favor of Felix Auger-Aliassime, who will be ready to spring a surprise against the 6-time Grand Slam champion.