Preview WTA Finals Day Six: Aryna Sabalenka on the brink, Gauff and Pegula in 'must-win battles' for semifinal spot

Everything is ready for the final day of the Round Robin at the WTA Finals, with the definition of the Steffi Graf Group, where there is still no clear picture of what will happen. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka currently holds the lead, but she has not yet secured her qualification. She will face an urgent Coco Gauff, who needs a win in straight sets if she wants to guarantee her spot in the semifinals.

On the other side, the match between Jessica Pegula and Jasmine Paolini will have important implications. The American needs the victory to remain in contention, although if she drops even one set, she would be virtually eliminated. For now, it is only certain that Paolini is already eliminated, while the other three players still have chances to advance.

The World No. 5, Jessica Pegula, has three previous appearances at the WTA Finals and only managed to overcome the Round Robin in 2023 — the year she finished as runner-up behind Swiatek.

The American began her campaign this time with a victory against her compatriot Coco Gauff, a win of 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2. This was revenge for the Wuhan final a few weeks prior, which the 21-year-old star had won. In the second match, Pegula could have secured qualification but ended up losing in three sets to Sabalenka. Nevertheless, rescuing at least one set against the World No. 1 could end up being a key element for classification.

She will face a downcast Paolini, who, counting her 2024 participation, has only one victory in five matches at the WTA Finals. The Italian was eliminated early after straight-set losses to Sabalenka and Coco Gauff, having only accumulated nine games in the four sets she played. The 2-time Grand Slam runner-up is the only player competing in both the singles and doubles draws in Riyadh, which may have affected her potential in her recent matches: she committed 26 unforced errors against Sabalenka and a total of 40 against Gauff, impressive numbers considering the consistency the Italian usually shows from the baseline.

Pegula dominates the head-to-head with a notable 5-0, in which the Italian has never even managed to steal a set from the American. Their last encounter was back in the 2023 Canadian Open, where Pegula closed with a bagel.

Pegula will be desperate for a victory, and considering the level the players have shown in the tournament this week, she starts with a good chance against a Paolini who has little to gain. The American's classification is secured if Sabalenka defeats Gauff, but if her compatriot wins instead, the sets and games played by each player will be crucial in determining the standings and the qualifiers for the semifinals.

A luxury match to conclude the Round Robin phase in the WTA Finals in the Steffi Graf Group. World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka arrives following consecutive wins against Jasmine Paolini (6-3, 6-1) and then against Jessica Pegula (6-4, 2-6, 6-3). The 4-time Grand Slam champion got revenge against Pegula — who had broken her winning streak in Wuhan a few weeks ago — and took the group lead, but still hasn't secured her presence in the semifinals.

Sabalenka, who reached the final in 2022, is looking to overcome the Round Robin phase for the 4th consecutive year, and will only need one set to ensure her passage to the semifinals — although she will ultimately depend on Pegula's results in the first match against Paolini.

On the other side, Coco Gauff, the tournament's defending champion, debuted with a loss against Pegula, and things seemed overly complicated. However, the victory against Paolini in the second match revived her hopes, and now it only depends on her to secure her passage to the next round. A straight-sets victory against Sabalenka would guarantee her the first spot in the group — although the possibilities are still open for both Gauff and Sabalenka.

In the head-to-head, Gauff holds the advantage with 6 wins against 5 for Sabalenka, with their last encounter being the Roland Garros final, where they delivered a true battle that the American finished by coming back from a set down to claim her second major title. They already faced each other in the Riyadh semifinals in 2024, with the American winning — and subsequently taking the title.