Swiatek and Sabalenka secure WTA Finals spots: Who will join them in Riyadh?

Aryna Sabalenka has secured her spot in the WTA Finals, joining Iga Swiatek as the first two players confirmed for the event in Riyadh. Sabalenka's second Grand Slam title of the season brought her closer to Swiatek, and the Finals will play a crucial role in deciding who ends the year as World No. 1.

Six spots remain up for grabs, although several players seem almost certain to secure their places. However, the battle for the last few spots in the top eight remains wide open as WTA stars prepare for the final leg of the season.

So far, only two players have officially qualified for the Finals. The first to secure her spot was Iga Swiatek at the start of August, following an outstanding clay swing, which included a 19-match winning streak and four WTA 1000 titles, alongside her French Open triumph. With a record of 54-7 this season, the Polish star is firmly holding onto the World No. 1 ranking.

Just a few days ago, Sabalenka booked her place in Riyadh after reaching the US Open final. With two Grand Slam titles—Australian Open and US Open—and a Cincinnati WTA 1000 title under her belt, Sabalenka has narrowed the gap to Swiatek. They are now separated by roughly 400 points.

The Belarusian is a strong contender to finish the year as World No. 1, especially with the remaining tournaments being held on hard courts, a surface where she excels. Swiatek currently has 8,285 points in the WTA Race, while Sabalenka follows closely with 7,876.

The current threshold for WTA Finals qualification stands at 5,835 points, although it will gradually drop as more tournaments unfold. Some players will need to push hard to secure their spots, though a few are almost guaranteed to be in Riyadh.

Elena Rybakina is closest to qualifying, with 4,981 points. Despite injuries and frequent withdrawals, the Kazakh has delivered strong results when fit: three WTA 500 titles, two WTA 1000 runner-up finishes, and a semi-final run at Wimbledon. She is third in the Race with 4,981 points and, while not officially qualified yet, it would take a disaster to see her miss out.

In a similar position is Jasmine Paolini, who won the WTA 1000 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships and was runner-up at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. With 4,865 points, Paolini is well-positioned to qualify for the Finals. Jessica Pegula follows closely with 4,466 points, and while her qualification isn't confirmed yet, it's unlikely that many players will overtake her after she earned 1,200 points by reaching the US Open final.

These three players are highly unlikely to miss out on the Finals. Although they haven't reached the qualification threshold yet, they won't need many more points to book their tickets to Riyadh.

For reference, the last player to qualify for the Finals in 2022 was Maria Sakkari with 3,245 points. In 2021, Daria Kasatkina needed 2,935, and Anett Kontaveit 3,096. The most points needed to qualify was in 2019, when Elina Svitolina secured the final spot with 3,995 points.

Meanwhile, Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova is practically guaranteed a place in the Finals as a Grand Slam champion. According to the rules, if a Slam champion is not among the top eight players, they will qualify as long as they finish the season inside the top 20. With 2,686 points so far, it’s nearly impossible for Krejcikova to drop out of the top 20.

With Swiatek and Sabalenka confirmed for the Finals, four more spots are practically secured by Barbora Krejcikova, Elena Rybakina, Jasmine Paolini, and Jessica Pegula, leaving two final spots in fierce contention.

Coco Gauff leads this part of the race with 3,968 points. The American hasn’t capitalised on the hard-court swing as she did last year, and she’s now dropped out of the top five in the Race. Nevertheless, Gauff still has strong chances to qualify for the Finals, though the form of her competitors could mean her place won’t be confirmed until the final weeks of the season.

Currently, the eighth and final qualifying spot belongs to Emma Navarro, who has 3,568 points after a semi-final run at the US Open. Her impressive showing at the final Grand Slam of the year has created some distance between her and her closest challengers.

However, players like Danielle Collins (3,179) and Zheng Qinwen (3,070) are also well within striking distance of a Finals spot. With two WTA 1000 events and a few WTA 500 tournaments still on the calendar, a deep run or an important title could push either of them into the top eight, keeping the race open until the very last week.