WTA Finals: Aryna Sabalenka powers through to knock down Jessica Pegula challenge

Aryna Sabalenka salvaged a hard-fought victory against Jessica Pegula in her second WTA Finals match, winning 6-4, 2-6, 6-3. The World No. 1 overcame a break deficit in the third set and went on a run of 4 consecutive games to seal a victory that leaves her practically classified for the semi-finals—though she still has to wait for the third match day, where winning just one set will guarantee her passage to the next round.

The 4-time major champion took just over two hours to secure the win against the American, and took revenge for their duel three weeks prior, in which Pegula had claimed the victory in the Wuhan Open semi-finals—a tournament where Sabalenka was the 3-time defending champion.

The H2H arrived with an 8-3 lead for Sabalenka, although it was Pegula who claimed the victory in their last encounter, just three weeks earlier in the Wuhan Open semi-finals, when—after coming back from a set down—the American closed out the win in the third-set tie-break.

The first set was marked by the World No. 1 being the first to face complications on her serve, barely in her second service game, facing the first break point against her—though she managed to save it. The American, for her part, had an impressive start on serve, with a good number of first serves in the first set (71%), on which she based her game to avoid too much difficulty. However, Sabalenka's deep returns led Pegula to commit the first errors, especially on the forehand, and the first break of the match came around the 6th game.

Sabalenka was in a comfortable position after the first break and had the opportunity to serve to close the set at 5-3, but she couldn't convert. After wasting a set point on her serve, Pegula seized the opportunity and recovered the break, leveling things at 4-5 with serve to tie. However, Sabalenka responded in the next game, and after four more set points in her favor, she ended up taking the lead 6-4, after 45 minutes of play.

After Pegula's wasted opportunity, Sabalenka had capitalized to pull ahead in the first set, but the World No. 5 quickly got ahead in the second, achieving a streak of 9 consecutive points and taking 3 games in a row to lead 3-1 (overcoming a couple of break opportunities from her rival along the way).

These were moments of irregularity for Sabalenka, who dropped from 14 winners and 17 unforced errors in the first set to only 5 winners and 13 unforced errors in the second set. Pegula looked less pressured on her serve than in the first set, elevating her first-serve effectiveness from 54% to 82%, and also troubling her opponent on the return. The American secured the double break late in the set and ended up taking the second set 6-2.

The start of the third set seemed fruitful for Sabalenka, who took her first service game to love and then rushed to get her first break point. However, she failed to convert it, allowing Pegula back in, and the American responded with a break in the third game.

The advantage for the American put her in a position where she only needed to hold her serve for the subsequent games to secure the victory—and achieve qualification. Nevertheless, the reaction from Sabalenka was yet to come. She refused to be intimidated by the deficit and rattled off four consecutive games—converting 2/3 break points and conceding no opportunities—taking a lead of 5-2.

Thus, there was no room for more surprises in the remainder of the match. Pegula managed to reduce the deficit but it wasn't enough against a Sabalenka who finished impeccably on serve, closing out the win 6-4, 2-6, 6-3. Now, the Belarusian must wait for the final match day, where only a disaster could leave her out. This would require her to lose to Gauff in straight sets, and Pegula to beat Paolini in straight sets—which would then lead to Sabalenka and Pegula deciding who qualifies based on the game difference.