Preview ATP Finals Day Three: Alcaraz and Fritz clash for group supremacy as Musetti, De Minaur fight for survival

Action continues in Turin with Day Three of the ATP Finals, which will be played this Tuesday, November 11. After the second day of competition, the first round of matches in the Jimmy Connors Group was completed, and attention is now focused on the return of Carlos Alcaraz to the courts following his victory.

The 6-time Grand Slam champion will face the American Taylor Fritz—in a duel between first-day winners, in search of the group leadership. The winner will effectively have one foot in the semi-finals. Separately, Lorenzo Musetti and Alex de Minaur face each other in a clash of the desperate, as they seek to stay alive in the group.

The World No. 2 started his ATP Finals journey on the right foot, overcoming the tough challenge of the first match, having been defeated in his debut in his two previous participations. This time, Alcaraz showed his favorability and defeated Alex de Minaur in straight sets (7-6, 6-2), in a standout performance featuring his backhand, a weapon he looks increasingly confident with.

“When he hits his backhand down the line as he did today, it's a sign he's playing with a lot of confidence,” De Minaur assured after the encounter. "He broke my serve a couple of times with winners on his backhand down the line. When he plays like that, it's quite challenging to weather the storm.”

Alcaraz has an incredible 68-8 season record, during which he won 8 titles—including two Grand Slams at Roland Garros and the US Open. The Spaniard's best performance at the ATP Finals was the semi-finals in 2023, where he ended up falling to eventual champion Novak Djokovic. The Spaniard also has extra motivation this week, with a good chance to secure the World No. 1 ranking: he holds a 1,250-point lead in the live ranking over Sinner, out of a maximum of 1,500 available in the final week of competition.

He will face one of the few opponents who has managed to trouble Alcaraz: World No. 5 Taylor Fritz, who won his debut against Musetti in straight sets. The 2024 finalist has important ranking points to defend this week, and the win against the Italian will give him a confidence boost to face Alcaraz for the 6th time in his career (5-1 in favor of the Spaniard), with three of those duels this year.

Fritz achieved an epic victory against Alcaraz at the Laver Cup, his only win against the Spaniard, which ended up giving Team World the victory, also under indoor hardcourt conditions. The American was dominant on serve in his debut, winning 84% of first-serve points and hitting a total of 13 aces. A tight duel can be expected, in which the winner will be practically qualified for the semi-finals—pending the result of Musetti-De Minaur.

These are two players who arrive urgently needing a win if they want to avoid early elimination. In the opening matches, neither De Minaur nor Musetti managed to win a set: the Australian won 8 games to the Italian's 7, so the differences are minimal at the moment.

De Minaur has maintained his consistency late in the year, reaching the semi-finals in Beijing and Vienna and the quarter-finals at the Shanghai and Paris Masters. With a 55-22 season record and an ATP 500 title (DC Open), De Minaur will look to cap off a good season with a strong performance in Turin. The loss to Alcaraz—a priori—could be within expectations, but the litmus test comes now against Musetti—as will the final match against Fritz. The World No. 7 currently has a negative 0-4 record at the ATP Finals and will be seeking his first win in the year-end tournament against Musetti.

Musetti, for his part, also debuted with a loss after falling in straight sets to Fritz—a match that appeared crucial for his aspirations. After a rollercoaster ride to secure qualification, he quickly traveled from Athens—after losing the final to Djokovic—and prepared quickly for Turin. This lack of time could have affected his performance, considering his limited time to adapt to the conditions compared to his rivals. The World No. 9 has a 44-21 season record but no titles—despite reaching three finals this year.

In the Head-to-Head (H2H), Musetti dominates 3-1, having taken the victory in their last three consecutive matches between 2024 and 2025. De Minaur's only win was at the 2022 Australian Open, when the Italian's reality was very different—at just 20 years old and outside the Top 60. However, the duel in Melbourne is the only previous one they have had on hardcourts, while Musetti's wins came on clay and grass. Both players desperately need a win if they want to enter the final round with a chance.