Preview ATP Finals final: Carlos Alcaraz hunts first Turin crown as Jannik Sinner leans on home crowd and indoor streak

A dream final is coming for tennis fans at the ATP Finals. World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will face the No. 2—and defending champion—Jannik Sinner, in a final duel to close the season, which will be their 6th final of the year. The Spaniard seeks to inaugurate his trophy cabinet at the ATP Finals, while the Italian will try to rely on the support of the home crowd to claim his second title in Turin.

The rivalry that has marked the last two years will have its 16th episode, with Alcaraz dominating the H2H so far by 10-5. Both players arrive with perfect campaigns in Turin, where Alcaraz has dropped only one set, while Sinner has yet to concede any. While the head-to-head favors the Spaniard, the home advantage and the indoor hardcourt conditions seem to play in favor of the Italian, in a final that is anticipated to be tight from the start.

A week ago, one of the focuses ahead of the ATP Finals was who would secure the year-end World No. 1 ranking. Sinner managed to reclaim the top spot for one week, but the massive defense of points in Turin left Alcaraz with a better chance to finish the year at the top, depending on himself. The 22-year-old star achieved this during the Round Robin, after consecutive victories against Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz, and Lorenzo Musetti.

If anything has characterized Alcaraz's resurgence in 2025, it has been his ability to manage his serve better and win free points more often. Without being one of his strong points in previous years, the improvements have been evident, and the indoor hardcourts of Turin have been beneficial. The semi-final against Auger-Aliassime was the best demonstration of this: he had a 75% first serve in and won 82% of those points, in addition to saving the only break point opportunity he faced.

Alcaraz will play his 80th match of the season so far, in what is the best year of his short career. A 71-8 record, 8 titles—including two Grand Slams—and two other finals reached, give him secured earnings superior to $18 million to close the season—without considering the bonus pool he will receive for his campaigns in Masters 1000s, ATP 500s, and his Year-End No. 1 ranking.

For the Spaniard, it will be a new opportunity to dethrone Sinner and show why he secured the Year-End No. 1 spot. Alcaraz’s superiority in the H2H has been evident in the last year, with seven wins in their last eight matches, the only exception being the Wimbledon final halfway through the year.

The 6-time major champion will seek his 11th victory against Sinner and claim his first ATP Finals title. He aims to become the first Spaniard to achieve it since Àlex Corretja in 1998—in an all-Spanish final against the current Spanish Davis Cup captain, Carlos Moyá. Curiously, it is one of the few major trophies that Nadal never managed to win.

For Jannik Sinner, it has been another perfect campaign at the ATP Finals, after winning the title in 2024. The Italian holds nine consecutive victories in the year-end tournament (13 of his last 14 matches). After losing the chance to finish the year at World No. 1, the only focus for the 24-year-old star is to defend his title, and so far he has been impressive in advancing to his 10th final of the season. The World No. 2 won 5 titles and lost in 4 finals so far—all against Carlos Alcaraz (Rome, French Open, Cincinnati, and US Open).

On his path, he has yet to concede a set in his victories against Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Zverev, Ben Shelton, and Alex De Minaur, winning 64% of the games he has played. The Italian seems to feel especially comfortable on indoor hardcourts, where he holds 30 consecutive victories on the surface, in addition to a total of nine career titles under these conditions.

Three months away from the court between February and May ultimately cost Sinner in the battle for the top ranking spot, but he still ends the year close to Alcaraz with a 57-6 record so far. Sinner's level this week has been a key aspect of his game: in every one of his matches, he had first serve percentages above 70% and effectiveness above 80%, in addition to not having conceded a single break so far.

With an unfavorable H2H record of 5-10 (including only one win in his last eight matches against Alcaraz), Sinner will have to maintain his serving effectiveness from the last week if he wants to turn things around. At least the circumstances may be favorable for the Italian to close the gap with Alcaraz in their final confrontation of the season.